Annual cycle by region
Each row tracks one production region across the calendar year. Amber bars mark critical weather-sensitive windows where yield outcomes are determined.
Why these windows matter
Vanilla yields are determined disproportionately during a small number of weather-sensitive windows. Across the 3 production regions tracked here, 3 windows show outsized sensitivity to rainfall, temperature, or storm damage. Buyers who track these windows can position contracts ahead of price moves driven by yield uncertainty.
The most consequential weather risks for vanilla are concentrated in specific months. Cyclone & Tropical Storm Damage These forces drive the seasonal volatility that shows up in futures markets weeks or months later.
The calendar above is structural, not predictive — it shows where and when vanilla grows under normal conditions. Weather anomalies (El Niño, La Niña, regional droughts) shift these windows by weeks and compound across regions. ATLAS tracks these anomalies in its supply-risk data and surfaces them on the vanilla risk surface.
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